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Post-election showdown looms for Raghuram Rajan

May 10, 2014, 9:40 am

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RBI governor Raghuram Rajan is likely to come under political pressure to retreat from his hawkish stance on inflation if BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi wins in the general elections.

RBI governor Raghuram Rajan is likely to come under political pressure to retreat from his hawkish stance on inflation if BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi wins in the general elections.

Strategists in Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), confident that his jobs-first policy pitch will secure a strong voter mandate, suggest that they would prefer to have one of their own at the helm of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

Strategists in Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), confident that his jobs-first policy pitch will secure a strong voter mandate, suggest that they would prefer to have one of their own at the helm of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

That sets the stage for a confrontation with RBI governor Raghuram Rajan, who since being appointed last September has enjoyed an unusually smooth ride in a country where governments often treat the RBI as a punchbag for their own policy failings.

That sets the stage for a confrontation with RBI governor Raghuram Rajan, who since being appointed last September has enjoyed an unusually smooth ride in a country where governments often treat the RBI as a punchbag for their own policy failings.

The former International Monetary Fund chief economist is widely viewed as India's most capable technocrat, winning the respect of investors for his handling of a currency crisis that hit India last year.

The former International Monetary Fund chief economist is widely viewed as India's most capable technocrat, winning the respect of investors for his handling of a currency crisis that hit India last year.

"It will be a big loss of face for the country and would create a negative perception among foreign investors if the BJP removes the governor immediately after forming the government," said A. Prasanna, an economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd in Mumbai.

"It will be a big loss of face for the country and would create a negative perception among foreign investors if the BJP removes the governor immediately after forming the government," said A. Prasanna, an economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd in Mumbai.

Before moving to the RBI, Rajan, 51, served as chief economic adviser to the finance ministry under the Congress party-led government, which opinion polls say faces defeat in the five-week national election starting on Monday.

Before moving to the RBI, Rajan, 51, served as chief economic adviser to the finance ministry under the Congress party-led government, which opinion polls say faces defeat in the five-week national election starting on Monday.

BJP treasurer Piyush Goyal has attacked Rajan over a series of interest rate hikes intended to curb inflation, now running at double the RBI's longer-term 4 per cent target, at a time when economic growth has fallen to its slowest in a decade.

BJP treasurer Piyush Goyal has attacked Rajan over a series of interest rate hikes intended to curb inflation, now running at double the RBI's longer-term 4 per cent target, at a time when economic growth has fallen to its slowest in a decade.

Rajan has raised the repo policy rate three times by a total of 75 basis points to 8 per cent. "Governor Rajan is only aggravating the problems and making them worse by increasing interest rates," Goyal, a leading strategist and fundraiser for the nationalist opposition party, told Economic Times.

Rajan has raised the repo policy rate three times by a total of 75 basis points to 8 per cent. "Governor Rajan is only aggravating the problems and making them worse by increasing interest rates," Goyal, a leading strategist and fundraiser for the nationalist opposition party, told Economic Times.

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